Richard Silver

TORONTO, November 19, 2008 

Greater Toronto REALTORS® recorded 1,991 resale transactions during the first half of November 2008 from 3,544 sales recorded during the same period a year ago, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

The Greater Toronto Area year-to-date figures show 70,474 sales in 2008 from 84,994 recorded during the same period in 2007. The year-to-date average price was recorded at $380,470 in 2008 from $374,678 in 2007.

In the 416 area, 830 homes changed hands in the first two weeks of November from 1,643 transactions recorded during the same time frame a year ago. The year-to-date figures show 28,126 compared to 35,045 recorded in 2007.

In the 905 Region there were 1,161 sales during the first half of the month from the 1,901 transactions recorded at mid-November 2007. The year-to-date figures show 42,348 compared to 49,949 recorded in 2007.

‘It’s particularly important to interpret the 416 area statistics in context given the market surge we saw a year ago when buyers moved to avoid the new Toronto Land Transfer Tax,” said Ms. O’Neill. “At midmonth a year ago, transactions in the 416 area had increased 24 per cent over the same period in 2006.”

In the first two weeks of November 2008, the average price of a home in the GTA was $375,712 compared to $393,084 recorded a year ago.

In the 416 area, homes are currently selling for an average of $400,305 from the $432,972 average recorded during the same time period in 2007. An average price of $383,029 was recorded in the first two weeks of November 2006.

In the 905 Region the average price is currently $358,130 from $358,610 recorded a year ago. During the first half of November 2006 the average price was recorded at $336,576.

“As an investment, a home not only offers shelter and an environment in which life’s most important moments are shared, but also offers financial appreciation in the long term, said Ms. O’Neill.”

Currently there are 27,562 homes listed for sale on the TorontoMLS system compared to a year ago when 20,173 properties were available. As such, the average time homes are remaining on the market is 41 days from 31 days in 2007. Sellers are currently achieving 97 per cent of their list price.

Greater Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict Code of Ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service. Serving over 28,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board. Greater Toronto Area open house listings are now available on www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com.

I’m just back from my yearly pilgrimage to NAR (National Association of REALTORS) Conference, this year held in Orlando, Florida. There is usually no need to work out every morning as the venue is so massive and courses are so far between, that the need for daily exercise is totally negated. Two days of 10-12 hour sleeps are definitely what the doctor ordered on return and I am not a party-person (my latest night never passed 11 PM).

It takes a while for all the stimuli to gel into some comprehensive vision so bear with me. It is always interesting to get 20,000 plus A-type personalities in one place listening to a number of Triple-A type personalities discuss the Real Estate Market, Motivation, Technology, MLS Issues, Politics and my favourite, Restaurants and FOOD!!

There were all the best motivators in the marketplace starting with Mickey Mouse (Disney Institute), Gary Keller (Millionaire Systems), Howard Brinton (Star Power), and even Lance Armstrong (Mr. Tour de France). There was lots of discussion of Social Marketing with Dustin Luther (4Realz.net), Jeff Turner (RealEstateShows), Theresa Boardman (St. Paul Real Estate Blog), Inez Hegedus-Garcia (Miamism), Ginger Wilcox (Marin Real Estate Guide). A great session by Stefan Swanepoel (Swanepoel.com) and Lawrence Yun (Realtor.org) as well as a very directional presentation by David Meerman Scott called “The New Rules of Marketing and PR”(the same name as his book and a must read).

It goes without saying that the networking was fast and furious on both sides of the border and there were probably 400-500 Canadians in attendance, sharing thoughts, ideas and thinking about new ways to move their Business and Boards/Associations forward.

These Conferences are not for the faint of heart when it comes to change and shift and like the theme of this years Conference noted: Full Speed Ahead, Destination, Success…. more to come….

Here is a quick little synopsis of the last 30 years in Downtown Toronto. The biggest change, apart from prices which have increased almost seven fold, is the number of Condominiums in our marketplace. Since the late 1970’s and early 80’s, Condominiums which were only 2-5% of real estate sales have increased to just under 50% of the sales activity in 2007.

What is really great however, is that over the past ten and certainly five years, the number of renters converting to home ownership has significantly increased as can be seen in this graph by CMHC. Not only has this drastically changed the Toronto Skyline, but it has increased the tax base and made us more of a “Home-proud” City!

Cabbagetown is a Village in the middle of a big City. One of the many that make Toronto great and one of my favourite areas for its’ diversity. You can have a great coffee at the Jet Fuel Cafe and be verbally abused by the owner, lovingly named Johnny Jetfuel. Do not order a non-fat, no-foam Latte in a double cup (my usual Starbucks order) or you’ll be told “You’ll get it how I make it, with 2%, in one cup, and if you don’t like it-see ya!!”  However, if you can be flexible, it’s addictive and the Jet Fuel Cafe’ is the centre of the Cabbagetown Community.

Don’t be intimidated by the would-be Lance Armstrongs walking around in skin tight bicycling outfits. Johnny was a Bicycle Courier in earlier years and it has become the hangout for some really fit. However don’t worry! There are lots of real people, even Realtors like myself.

One of the most important trends to watch in Real Estate is the average number of days on the market. Over the past year there has been an increase in the days on the market from 30 days in the most active market to our recent level of 38 days.

To Sellers this means that expectations have to change and for Buyers this means that there is not the urgency to buy…however do not be surprised when great properties still sell quickly and for good prices. Unusual homes in good locations are not as affected by market conditions..don’t get caught sleeping at the switch. You may not be the only person looking for that special something!

When I encounter someone not in my small circle of friends, and they ask how I am, I know that the second question will be “How’s the market?”

Without trying to be rude (my first instinct…), I try to point out that it is almost impossible to gauge any statistic that would reflect a world economic crisis as well as Canadian and American elections within a short time frame.

Of course, the Real Estate market will be affected much as it was on and after September 11. That was short-lived and people got passed the paralysis and life moved on.

Let’s give all this chance to settle out and remember that your home is not a stock portfolio. It is where you share time with family and friends and where your health is more important than any property valuation.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

What follows are my impressions and thoughts about the Conference in San Francisco, July 23rd to 26th, 2008. I will try to report rather than comment however…

First of all…San Francisco is an amazing location for a Conference…beautiful, great weather, charm and great places to indulge!!

The US Economy is in a recession (not a popular word) but the optimists think there is one year left to bottom out…however, at the end of the day…Real Estate is very local. Some areas are active and not that affected by the rest of the marketplace. The market in Canada looks way more buoyant and positive; we are not facing the levels of debt that have become part of the fabric here. Our Banks do not allow borrowers to extend themselves to this extent.  The fall in the US market seems to be more about credit than it is Real Estate.

In the States prices are sticky, homeowners are slow to reduce but Builders are not. The Real Estate Market is still very local…New York and San Francisco are still good but have moved from a two month supply to a three month supply.  Most other areas are down 30%…

Blogging for REALTORS is moving to Brokerage Blogging and possibly soon to Association Blogging. The message has to get out in all sorts of ways…RSS Feeds (Really Simple Syndication), Blogs (www.ActiveRain.com), Social Marketing (Facebook, Twitter, Flicker). Blogging is all about engaging with others…posting about what people on your street are talking about…What are the needs in your Community? Get more into your niche! RSS feeds are very popular to give all consumers information that they are not getting from normal sources. Beware of Internet Ruffians. Blogging is all about engaging the consumer in a discussion.

Broker Chase International launched ChaseNation.com and got 15-20 of their REALTORS to blog about the areas that they work in. The Broker moderates the Blog and handles the leads if the REALTORS do not respond to them in a timely fashion. They usewww.GoogleAnalytics.com  to track the usage in the Community and use the Blog to increase traffic to the Broker Web site. They suggest at all times that the writers be open, honest and transparent and use lots of market Stats. Usewww.GoogleAlerts.com to track your visibility on the web.

Check out Interorealestate.com for incredible use of “Mashups” and properties that have sold.  There is no sign on till the Buyer wants listings pushed to them. They are powered by terabitz.com and have created a great experience for the customer. Note: they have a 2400 square foot office in the Silicon Valley, are paperless and web-based with 2000 Sales Associates.

There is a strong movement in the US to create an Open Web; lots of information for the Buyer and the Seller gets lots of visibility. Listings with good photos are viewed 3 to 1 and if photos are not good the consumer has a tendency to doubt the credibility of the REALTOR.

Better Homes and Gardens Franchise was launched run by REALOGY with Sherry Chris, ex Royal LePage VP as CEO. They say they are the first national Franchise to have a blog, use Twitter and Facebook.

MLS Issues: Historically MLS’s focus on the REALTOR rather than the Consumer but this seems to be changing. Most MLS’s are moving to RETS Compatibility (a standard format for sharing data between MLS’s). High quality, fresh data is very important today. They all want a better experience and will go to the site that has it…

Public Facing MLS Web Sites HAR.com; Some interesting additions being added or considered: Including SOLDS (Some just show the last asking price but say that it is sold), Agent Ratings (Opt-in allowed but last few Clients can rate you). However, Consumers are more comfortable with a Public Facing MLS web site like www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com

IDX (Sharing of Data between Brokers) is moving to data syndication (Companies that get the information from the Brokerage or MLS and push it to numerous sites with the approval of the Broker through a single feed). Some listing aggregators (Homes.com) have move to listing syndicators…

The Millenials: 1st group to grow up with interactive media. They are:

1.       Mobile: Want information on the go and are GPS enabled

2.       Omnivorous: use more types of Media

3.       Opportunistic: “If something is important it will come to me”

4.       Omnipresent: They want to participate

5.       Visual Generation: Photos and Video are important… www.Youtube.com

Some further notes and mental clips:

AgentGenius.com won the Inman Innovator Awards and has some great information. Sign up for their RSS Feed.

Average Sale Price in Manhattan is now 1.7 Million dollars.

US are not FINTRAC Compliant but have been the target of Money Laundering and Terrorism.

Most Internet Leads are early stage leads and need to be massaged. Conversion is the new problem with leads.

Consumers are reluctant to fill out forms and to complete business you have to meet.

“OPEN is the new Black (all the data). Unlock the SOLD data…”

“HOPE is not a business strategy.”

Brokers are learning that Branch offices are not important…web sites are. Brokers are moving from offline marketing to online. Move your money to your web site!!

Alex Perriello, CEO of Realogy (Parent company of Century 21, ERA, Coldwell Banker, and Sotheby’s International Realty and the newly launched Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate) had 5 suggestions for REALTORS:

1.       Know your local Market Stats

2.       Know where the opportunities are: Price Adjustments

3.       Mine Past Clients

4.       Build Consumer Confidence by showing SOLD listings in your marketing

5.       Start communicating with renters to convert them to buyers

“You cannot go to every Party” in reference to being everywhere

“In your Blogging find the balance between Information and Inspiration”

“Your listing should be everywhere that makes sense”

Here are some of my favourite RSS feeds for Real Estate:

1000watt Blog, 4 Realz.net, AgentGenius.com, Toronto Real Estate and Neighbourhoods Blog/Move Smartly, WAV Group

At the end of the day, it looks like we will always be meeting with clients face-to-face to complete transactions; it is engaging them in the first place that is changing.